In this seminar the expert panellists will consider the implications for global trade over the next two years of the Brexit negotiations and a possible Brexit at the end of them. They will also place European trade in the context of global trade, which is subject to a number of growing uncertainties. A particular theme of the panellists will be the reactions of economic actors to a shifting economic environment.

Speakers:

Dr Rebecca Harding, Co-Founder and CEO, Equant Analytics

Catherine Stewart, Partner, Jericho Chambers; Senior Adviser, Interel

Dr Gunnar Pohl, Deputy Director General – Head of Tax Services, German-British Chamber of Industry & Commerce

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The minority Conservative government’s Brexit policy is in chaos. The Prime Minister’s personal position is fragile; Ministers contradict each other publicly; and the traditional supporters of the Conservative party in the City and business become daily more vocal about their unease. Against this turbulent background, our panel of experts will consider the real options open to the British government at a time of political volatility. No options can be ruled out, including that of abandoning Brexit as a bad job altogether.

Speakers

Professor Stephen Haseler, Director, Global Policy Institute

Baroness Quin, former Minister for Europe

Denis MacShane, Senior Adviser, Avisa Partners, former MP

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After a painfully slow recovery from the 2008 financial crisis, and in the wake of the Brexit vote, UK businesses and policymakers recognise that the UK urgently needs new economic thinking and practices. Last year, the new Conservative administration established the Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy department and has recently launched a green paper entitled ‘Building our Industrial Strategy’. Dame Kate Barker, who has a strong reputation for rigorous, independent economic analysis, is leading a new Industrial Strategy Commission backed by the universities of Sheffield and Manchester to provide, by September 2017, evidence-based policy recommendations for the development of a new industrial strategy. She will discuss the detailed aims of this work, progress made, and any initial findings.

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This event will be the launch of a new report by Dr. Andrew Black of the Global Policy Institute looking at the possible consequences of a hard Brexit, following the failure of Article 50 negotiations between Great Britain and the European Union. Through his detailed analysis, Dr. Black has attempted to fill the gap in economic forecasting which Brexit Secretary David Davis has admitted exists within his ministry. The findings of Dr. Black’s report cast particular doubt upon the view expressed by governmental representatives during the current election campaign that “no deal” with the European Union is better than a “bad deal.” Specifically, Dr Black concludes that a number of sectors of the economy, such as cars, agriculture, and financial services are likely to be hard hit. We expect a lively  and informed discussion.

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It has already become clear that the question of financial and related services will form a separate and substantial component of the negotiations between the United Kingdom and the European Union triggered by the invocation of Article 50.

This discussion will be considering the negotiating positions of the two parties, the strengths and weaknesses of these positions and possible outcomes for both sides. Such questions as “passporting” and “equivalence”; the interdependence of continental Europe and the City of London in financial services; differing political perceptions of the role of financial services in the modern economy; and future competitive tensions between the financial industries of countries remaining in the EU and the country leaving it will be at the centre of the debate. This is a partner event organised by the Federal Trust, Konrad Adenauer Foundation and Global Policy Institute.

Panellists include:

Nicky Edwards
Independent consultant & Associate at Brexit Exchange

Nicolas Maclean
Commentator on financial services issues

Gergely Polner
Head of Europe Public Affairs, Standard Chartered Bank

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Brexit and the change of the US administration could have significant implications for UK defence policies. Since the second world war, NATO has been a cornerstone of UK and European defence policies. Since the Brexit vote there has been speculation  that the remaining 27 EU members might decide on closer defence cooperation to enable the EU to contemplate military actions independent of NATO. There are concerns that this might weaken NATO. During his election campaign Donald Trump cast doubts on the need for NATO and the commitment of some members to pay their share. Since the appointment of his cabinet, however, he appears to have modified his previous views. The uncertainties arising have implications for UK security and for the UK defence industry. Dr Julian Lewis MP, Chair of the Defence Select Committee, will present and discuss his views of these developments.

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